Bharat Forecast System is a next-generation weather forecasting model launched by the Ministry of Earth Science at a launch ceremony held at Vigyan Bhawan on May 26.
Thus, India has become the only country operating a global forecast system at such a high resolution in real time. It also signifies a major stride towards self-reliance in meteorological sciences.
Key Features & Highlights
BFS is India's first fully indigenous high-resolution weather prediction model. It has been developed by the women scientists from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.
It operates on an unprecedented 6 km x 6 km spatial resolution, making it the world's highest-resolution operational weather model for a national agency.
This represents a significant improvement over India's previous 12 km models and surpasses global models from the EU, UK, and US, which typically operate at resolutions of 9-14 km.
BFS is powered by the Arka supercomputer at IITM, Pune, with a capacity of 11.77 petaflops and 33 petabytes of storage. This significantly reduces forecast computation time from 10-13 hours to just 3-4 hours.
It also integrates real-time data from a growing network of Doppler Weather Radars (currently 40, to be expanded to 100). This enables accurate 'nowcasts' (forecasts for the next two hours), crucial for rapidly evolving weather systems.
Doppler Weather Radar
It is a specialized radar that utilizes the Doppler effect to not only detect precipitation (rain, snow, hail) but also measure its movement (velocity), enabling meteorologists to track storms, predict wind shear, and identify features such as rotating thunderstorms.
It works by transmitting microwave signals and analyzing the frequency shift of the reflected waves to determine if precipitation is moving towards or away from the radar and at what speed.
BFS is a deterministic model, providing a single, clear, and specific weather forecast.
While covering the entire Indian mainland, it specializes in providing high-resolution forecasts for the tropical region (30° South to 30° North latitudes), where weather patterns are often complex.
The system has been under experimental testing since 2022 and has demonstrated significant improvements in accuracy (30-64%, depending on the event).
Significance for India
By integrating BFS into the IMD, we will have the following benefits,
- Disaster Risk Reduction: Enables much more precise and localized early warnings for extreme weather events like cyclones, flash floods, cloudbursts, and heavy rainfall, leading to better preparedness and timely evacuation. This directly contributes to Disaster Management.
- Agricultural Resilience: Provides village and panchayat-level forecasts, helping farmers make informed decisions on crop sowing, irrigation, and harvesting, thereby reducing crop losses and improving yields, directly impacting Food Security and Economic Resilience.
- Water Resource Management: Improves prediction of rainfall patterns, aiding in efficient reservoir management, flood control, and water distribution planning.
- Public Safety and Urban Planning: Offers real-time, localized alerts crucial for civic bodies, disaster response teams, and urban administrators for planning and immediate response.
- Sectoral Benefits: Crucial for sectors like aviation, defense, power generation, and transportation logistics, enhancing safety and efficiency.
- "Atmanirbhar Bharat" and "Make in India:" Represent a major step towards self-reliance in critical scientific infrastructure and strengthen India's global position in meteorological science.
- Economic Impact: Aims to reduce potential losses and add potential gains by providing highly accurate forecasts that can inform economic decisions, particularly in managing food inflation caused by weather anomalies.
BFS is not just a technological upgrade but a strategic national asset that will contribute significantly to India's climate resilience and socio-economic development.
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