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I saw this in http://www.space.com/12928-falling-satellite-crash-late-september-nasa.html" [Broken] about the debris from the UARS satellite.

This seems like an extremely large probability to me. They do not make any reference on how they computed this. Does anyone here know how they could have come up with this probability?

I would intuitively expect it to be much smaller. I mean 1 in 3200 that a piece of satellite will literally hit someone on earth? That is actually way more likely than I would imagine.

Thanks!

NASA officials estimate that there is a 1-in-3,200 chance that a person somewhere on Earth will be hit by UARS debris, and the odds of the dead satellite re-entering over a densely populated area is very small.

This seems like an extremely large probability to me. They do not make any reference on how they computed this. Does anyone here know how they could have come up with this probability?

I would intuitively expect it to be much smaller. I mean 1 in 3200 that a piece of satellite will literally hit someone on earth? That is actually way more likely than I would imagine.

Thanks!

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